Skip to main content

Math Formulas for Predicting the Super-Regionals

For the first time, I'm going to apply some established sports-prediction formulas to the NCAA softball super-regionals, which begin Thursday.

The starting point is what's called each team's "Pythagorean" season-long expected win percentage, based on its total runs scored and total runs allowed. The Pythagorean formula was originally developed for Major League Baseball, by Bill James, but has been modified for college softball by researchers at Fastpitch Analytics. As shown in the chart below, for example, Florida would have been expected to win roughly 85% of its regular-season games this past season, based on how many runs the Gators scored and allowed.

The next step is to apply a formula known as "Log5," which gives the probability of one team beating another head-to-head, based on each team's Pythagorean value. The favored team and its Log5 win probability are shown in the last two columns of the following chart.

Home Team
Pythag
Road Team
Pythag
Favorite
Favorite's Win
Probability (Log5)
Florida (1)
.85
Kentucky
.58
Florida
.80
Oregon (2)
.82
NC State
.72
Oregon
.64
Michigan (3)
.89
Georgia (14)
.79
Michigan
.68
Auburn (4)
.76
LA-Lafayette (13)
.87
LA-Lafayette
.68
LSU (5)
.83
Arizona (12)
.71
LSU
.67
Alabama (6)
.85
Oklahoma (11)
.88
Oklahoma
.56
UCLA (7)
.83
Missouri (10)
.71
UCLA
.67
Tennessee (8)
.75
Florida State (9)
.76
Florida State
.51

Not surprisingly, No. 1-seed Florida has the highest Log5 win probability against its opponent, Kentucky, which emerged from the Notre Dame (No. 16-seed) regional.

More interesting is that the Pythagorean and Log5 formulas predict two upsets, No. 13 Louisiana-Lafayette over No. 4 Auburn (with 68% likelihood) and No. 11 Oklahoma over No. 6 Alabama (with 56% likelihood). Though No. 9 Florida State has a slightly higher Pythagorean value than No. 8 Tennessee, the series is essentially a 50/50 proposition.

What appears to be holding Auburn back in the Pythagorean calculation is its total runs allowed, rather than its total runs scored. The Tigers scored 460 runs in the regular season, second only to Oklahoma's 462 among ranked teams.  However, Auburn allowed 199 runs, not so great considering that many top teams gave up 115 or fewer.

I don't know how useful these formulas will be for this year's super-regionals, as they don't differentiate the series that much. In five of the eight series, the calculations say the favored team has roughly a two-thirds probability of winning.

For readers interested in such "bread and butter" measures as hitting, pitching, and defense, Fastpitch Analytics evaluates the super-regional teams on additional statistical metrics.

Popular posts from this blog

NiJaree Canady Transferring to -- of All Places -- Texas Tech

NiJaree Canady, whose sub-1.00 ERA helped lead Stanford to the Women's College World Series in both her years with the Cardinal, announced on July 24 that she is transferring to Texas Tech. I've lived in Lubbock for 27 years and can say that the town has been improving with a greater selection of restaurants and shops, and a new downtown performing arts center. Likewise, nice new facilities have been dotting the Texas Tech campus . Still, it seems unlikely that Canady would have become a Red Raider without the $1 million annual Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deal for her, made possible by the donation of a Texas Tech alumni couple. So stunning an event is this, even in the ever-changing world of collegiate athletics, that the New York Times  even ran a behind-the-scenes story on Canady's path to Texas Tech. I look forward to being in the stands to watch Canady pitch next spring, an opportunity I never expected to have.

Pitching Star NiJaree Canady Reportedly in the Transfer Portal

Stanford pitching ace NiJaree Canady has reportedly entered the transfer portal ( link ), having completed two seasons in the circle for the Cardinal. Stanford has made the WCWS in both of Canady's seasons on the team. Another school hit hard by the transfer portal is the University of Washington, with an exodus of eight Huskies . This list of the top ten players in the portal includes four from UW. Today is the final day of the 30-day window for players to enter the portal.
Washington used a first-inning grand-slam homer from pitcher Danielle Lawrie and some late insurance runs to defeat Georgia by a score of 9-3 in tonight's late game. The win gives U-Dub a spot in the best-of-three championship series against Florida starting Monday (Georgia had defeated Washington earlier today, 9-8 in nine innings, to force tonight's rematch). The Huskies thus claimed "top dog" status over Georgia on their side of the bracket. Florida got a two-out grand-slam homer from Ali Gardiner in the bottom of the seventh to edge Alabama 6-5. The Crimson Tide made a strong recovery in the tournament after looking "not ready for prime time" in an opening-round loss to Michigan. But, as a result of tonight's heartbreaking loss to the Gators, Bama is now eliminated. Lowrie's and Gardiner's grand-slams are among four that have been hit so far in this World Series.