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Examining Olympic Softball Players' Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Statistics

This posting is not strictly about college softball. It is about past Olympic softball players, but most from the U.S. previously played at the college level. Some of you may be familiar with the website Five-Thirty-Eight (named after the number of electoral votes in U.S. presidential elections), which features quantitative analyses of politics, sports, and other cultural phenomena. Five-Thirty-Eight has a new article available, looking at which Olympic softball players have the best Wins Above Replacement (WAR) statistics. WAR is a relatively straightforward concept, in principle: How many extra wins does a player get you compared to a marginal replacement player? For Major League Baseball, a "replacement player" is considered someone who would be brought up from the AAA minor-league level to play in the big leagues. However, WAR is very complicated to calculate and different analysts use somewhat different formulas. Putting all that aside, which softball Olympians have pro...

Women's College World Series Game 3 -- Thursday AFTERNOON

I'm back. It's been pretty much all Oklahoma thus far, with the Sooners (home team today) leading 5-1 after three... Still four innings to play, though... Solo shots by Jocelyn Alo in the first ( video ) and Jayda Coleman in the second gave OU a 2-0 lead... Florida State came back with one in the third, on a walk (runner later advanced to second on a ground-out) and a double, cutting its deficit to 2-1... Sooners counter with three runs in bottom of third on a single, walk, walk, and double, with a key wild pitch mixed in... Now, 5-1 OU... G Juarez rolling along in the circle for OU, whereas FSU has now used three pitchers (starter Danielle Watson, who pitched so well in Game 1, Emma Wilson, and most recently Kathryn Sandercock)... Noles go quietly in top of the fourth... OU likewise in bottom half... Noles likewise in top of fifth... Bottom fifth: Sharp line single to center to lead things off... Grounder to SS for double-play (tags second, throws to first)... Grounder to seco...

Women's College World Series 2021 -- Day 2

Almost ready for Game 2... Kathryn Sandercock, who finished up last night's game for FSU, will start in the circle tonight...  Top one: Tiare Jennings with leadoff double for OU... 3-0 to Jocelyn Alo, FSU may simply be trying not to give her anything to hit... Four-pitch walk, putting runners on first and second... Grounder to third for double play: step on the bag and throw to first. Runner on second, two outs... Grounder to second, umpire rules throw to first beat the batter there, but replay (and shocked expression on batter's face) clearly showed otherwise... Side retired... Some of the Twitter reactions to missed call... Bottom one: G Juarez in the circle for OU... One-out infield single, as batter avoids tag going to first... Elizabeth Mason with two-run blast to begin the scoring ( video ), 2-0 Seminoles... Next batter walks... K for second out... K on 3-2 change-up to end the inning...  A Jana Johns "jack" for OU ( video ) in the top of the third halves the S...

Women's College World Series 2021 -- The Finals (Finally)

Game 1 of the championship series between Florida State and Oklahoma is underway, after two of the Sunday games were delayed until Monday...   Top one: Kaley Mudge, who was 5-for-5 last night, leads off with a single for FSU, off of OU starter Nicole May... Sooners flub a short underhand toss from short to second to start off a possible double play, putting runners on first and second... Fading flare to left caught by OU's Mackenzie Donihoo, who doubles runner off second ( video )... Ground-out ends top of first...  Bottom one: Not so elementary, but Seminoles start Danielle Watson, rather than the more experienced Kathryn Sandercock or Caylan Arnold, in the circle. Watson pitched in relief last night... Watson with a nice leaping grab of a chopper to get first out at first base... K for second out... Grounder to third ends inning... Top two: Leadoff K... Grounder to second for second out... Deep fly to left-center for third out -- CF glides right in front of LF to make c...

Women's College World Series 2021 -- Modified Monday

News about coaching retirements (plural) and the scheduling controversy appear below the game synopses... Alabama-Florida State This is not the Montana Fouts we're used to seeing! Three Seminoles have stepped to the plate in the top of the first and the results are a single, a walk, and an Elizabeth Mason three-run shot ( video )... 3-0 FSU with none out... Noles add one run in the second and four in the third, making it 8-0... Bama with two in the bottom of the third, so the score is 8-2 FSU... Fouts is on the outs, having been removed after two and two-thirds innings pitched... Tide coming up in the bottom of the fourth... Leadoff double for Alabama by KB Sides... FSU replaces Kathryn Sandercock in the circle with Caylan Arnold... Fly to right for first out... Another fly, to left-center, for second out... Inning ends on grounder to second...  Still trailing 8-2, Bama coming up in bottom of fifth... Leadoff single to center... Bunted to second, one out... Perhaps the Tide was goi...

Women's College World Series 2021 -- Semi-Final Sunday

Breaking News: The two rematches (Oklahoma-JMU and Alabama-Florida State) that were originally scheduled for tonight have been shifted to Monday . The championship round will begin Tuesday. Alabama-Florida State Bama just needs one win to advance, whereas FSU needs two... Game finally starts after weather delay, Crimson Tide as the visitors... Scoreless after two... Bama pitching Lexi Kilfoyl rather than Montana Fouts... Still scoreless, heading to top of fifth... Top five: One-out single (takes second on passed ball) and HBP give Bama runners on first and second... K for second out... FSU pitching change (Kathryn Sandercock replacing Caylan Arnold)... Grounder to second ends threat... Bottom five: Infield single to start things for Seminoles... After fly-out, sharp single to left gives FSU runners on first and second with one out... Two-out single, followed by a walk, bring in game's first (and only) run, 1-0 FSU... Top six: Nothing for Bama... Bottom six: Two outs, none on for F...

Women's College World Series 2021 -- Survival Saturday

Every team playing today has one loss in the tournament, so every game is an elimination game. Hence, the nickname "Survival Saturday." Oklahoma State-Florida State In a game that didn't start until almost midnight (after many of us had gone to sleep), Florida State eliminated Oklahoma State , 4-2... Oklahoma-UCLA No. 1 Oklahoma vs. No. 2 UCLA, a rematch of the last WCWS championship round (2019), is what many fans have been expecting to see -- just not in the 2021 losers' bracket! Weather issues have delayed tonight's start, however, until 8:20 Central at the earliest . UCLA's Rachel Garcia, who I would expect to see pitch tonight, threw two games against Oklahoma in the 2019 WCWS (a Bruin sweep), facing many of the same batters she would face tonight (e.g., Jocelyn Alo, Nicole Mendes, and Lynnsie Elam). (Even if Bruin coach Kelly Inouye-Perez wanted to switch to Megan Faraimo, as she did for Game 2 of the super-regionals vs. Virginia Tech, Faraimo current...

Women's College World Series 2021 -- Winners' Bracket Friday

Only two games today, both of which are evening matchups of teams that won on Thursday. Starting around 6:00 pm Central, Oklahoma State will take on James Madison in tonight's opening game. UCLA and Alabama will then play a half-hour or so after the first game. UCLA-Alabama It will be hard to top Friday's first game (see below)... Alabama scores two in the top of the first on a single, double, and single... No further scoring by either team in the first three innings... Tide pitcher Montana Fouts has struck out seven of first nine UCLA batters... Bama now batting in top of fourth... Two outs with runner on second, after infield hit and stolen base... Foul-out in the third-base area ends threat... Crimson Tide wins 6-0, but the big story is that Fouts finishes with a 14-strikeout perfect game ! Oklahoma State-James Madison JMU has a threat going in the bottom of the first, with runners on first and second, two out... Grounder to pitcher for what looks like inning-ending out. How...

Women's College World Series 2021 -- Opening Thursday

The Women's College World Series is back for the first time in two years, owing to last year's COVID-19 cancellation of most of the season... It has not been a good year for top-eight seeded teams, as shown in this graphic I created (you can click on it to enlarge). Only four of them made it to OKC (seeds 1, 2, 3, and 5). The others are No. 10 and 11 and two unseeded squads. Below the graphic are my reactions and comments regarding today's games (and there has sure been a surprise!)...  UCLA-Florida State Bruins batting, bottom second, in scoreless game... Still scoreless after two and a half... UCLA wins 4-0 on the strength of Maya Brady golfing a two-run homer to center ( video ) and various other contributions ... Alabama-Arizona Tide leads 2-0, bottom third, on small-ball run in the first (walk, walk, single, error) and Bailey Hemphill blast in the third ( video )... Meanwhile, Bama pitcher Montana Fouts with eight strikeouts and nine batters faced (very first batter g...

Sunday of 2021 Super-Regionals

Only two undecided series left on the "Green Monster" board: Mizzou-James Madison (Game 3 at 11:00 am Central) and Oklahoma State-Texas (Game 3 at 3:00 pm Central). Comments and reactions on these two games appear below the board...   Match-Up Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 1 Oklahoma vs. 16 Washington Oklahoma Oklahoma --- 2 UCLA vs. Virginia Tech^ VT UCLA UCLA 3 Alabama vs. 14 Kentucky Alabama Alabama --- 4 Florida vs. Georgia Georgia Georgia --- 5 Oklahoma St. vs. 12 Texas OSU Texas OSU 6 Arkansas vs. 11 Arizona Arizona Arizona --- 7 LSU vs. 10 Florida St.^ FSU FSU --- 8 Missouri vs. James Madison J. Madison Mizzou J. Madison ^Series started on Thursday, all others on Friday. Oklahoma State-Texas Down to our final super-regional game. Oklahoma State had won first five meetings over Texas this season (3-0 in conference play, 1-0 in Big 12 t...

Saturday of 2021 Super-Regionals

Seven super-regional series are active today (Florida State having already qualified for the Women's College World Series), as shown below on the "Green Monster" board. Comments and reactions for other series appear below the board... Match-Up Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 1 Oklahoma vs. 16 Washington Oklahoma Oklahoma --- 2 UCLA vs. Virginia Tech^ VT UCLA UCLA 3 Alabama vs. 14 Kentucky Alabama Alabama --- 4 Florida vs. Georgia Georgia Georgia --- 5 Oklahoma St. vs. 12 Texas OSU Texas ??? 6 Arkansas vs. 11 Arizona Arizona Arizona --- 7 LSU vs. 10 Florida St.^ FSU FSU --- 8 Missouri vs. James Madison J. Madison Mizzou ??? ^Series started on Thursday, all others on Friday. UCLA-Virginia Tech Rachel Garcia back in the circle for UCLA in this deciding game, after being given Game 2 off... VT gets a two-out single in the top of the first, but ...

Friday of 2021 Super-Regionals

All eight super-regional series are active today, as shown on the "Green Monster" board (below). Virginia Tech and Florida State, respectively, look to close out UCLA and LSU. The No. 2-seeded Bruins struggled a week ago with Fresno State and Minnesota, so whereas UCLA's lackluster performance against the Hokies last night may not be totally shocking, it would still be a surprise to see the Bruins eliminated this early... Comments and reactions for other series appear below the board... Match-Up Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 1 Oklahoma vs. 16 Washington Oklahoma --- --- 2 UCLA vs. Virginia Tech^ VT UCLA --- 3 Alabama vs. 14 Kentucky Alabama --- --- 4 Florida vs. Georgia Georgia --- --- 5 Oklahoma St. vs. 12 Texas OSU --- --- 6 Arkansas vs. 11 Arizona Arizona --- --- 7 LSU vs. 10 Florida St.^ FSU FSU --- 8 Missouri vs. James Madison J. Madison --- ...

Opening (Thursday) Night of 2021 Super-Regionals

Two of the eight super-regional match-ups -- LSU vs. Florida State and UCLA vs. Virginia Tech -- open up tonight, with the rest beginning on Friday. I'll be here to follow the action, including the results board (below). UCLA-Virginia Tech Top 1: Two-out Kelsey Bennett triple to wall in right-center, just beyond two converging UCLA outfielders, drives in a pair, 2-0 Hokies... K ends the threat... VT adds two more in top of fourth, making it 4-0, still batting with runners on second and third and two out... Nice catch of a blooper in short left-field saves a run for UCLA... Runners at the corners for VT with none out in the top of the fifth... If game gets really out of hand, UCLA may want to remove pitcher Rachel Garcia and conserve her for later in the series... Single makes it 5-0... Here comes the hook... 7-2 Virginia Tech is your final... Hokies lead series, one game to none... Florida State-LSU Seminoles get first run of game in top of the sixth on a sacrifice fly... LSU with ...

Sunday of Opening Round -- 2021 NCAA Tourney

Today, we determine the 15 teams that will be joining Virginia Tech in the super-regionals (the Hokies' regional tournament started a day earlier than the rest). As listed below, each regional features an undefeated team that needs only one win to advance vs. a one-loss team that will need to beat the undefeated team twice. In other words, a regional isn't over until every team but one has two losses. No. 1 Oklahoma (needs one win) vs. Wichita State (needs two) OU leads 11-5, batting in the top of the fourth... The Shockers had temporarily shocked the Sooners with four runs in the bottom of the first, but OU doubled that with an eight-run second... OU lead now up to 18-7, top seventh... Final score, sending Sooners to supers , is 24-7... No. 2 UCLA (needs one win) vs. Minnesota (needs two) Opening game scoreless, heading into bottom (Gophers) half of second inning... Megan Faraimo pitching for UCLA, rather than Rachel Garcia, who pitched eight innings yesterday vs. Fresno State...

Saturday of Opening Round -- 2021 NCAA Tourney

Here are my real-time summaries and reactions to the games... WB = Winners' bracket, meaning that both teams entered with 1-0 records... LB = Losers' bracket, meaning that one or both teams entered with a loss... LSU regional WB: LSU leading ULL 8-2, bottom fourth... Tigers take it, 10-3... LB: McNeese State sends George Washington home, ULL does same to McNeese State... Oklahoma regional WB: Wichita State takes early 1-0 lead over OU, as catcher Madison Perrigan (nickname Butters)  socks a homer ... Perrigan's OU counterpart behind the plate, Lynnsie Elam, homers in the bottom of the second to tie it, 1-1... Sooners explode for a six-spot in the bottom of the fifth, highlighted by Elam's second homer of the day. Now 7-2 OU... Shockers put up three in top of sixth, but get no more... Final is 7-5 OU... LB: Texas A&M eliminates Morgan State, then is bounced by Wichita State... Missouri regional WB: Mizzou pitcher Laurin Krings comes within one out of a no-hitter... ...

First Full Day of 2021 NCAA Tourney

I love this time of year. Thanks to the ESPN Family of Networks (including the SEC Network), I have four Friday-afternoon games at my fingertips at the moment: Florida-South Florida, Auburn-UCF, Liberty-James Madison, and Arkansas-Manhattan... And as these games end, newer ones replace them on the air!... Below are my real-time summaries and reactions to many of the games, edited later to group them by regionals... Washington regional Seattle University down to its final three outs, trailing Michigan 2-0, top seven, in the Washington regional. Wolverines' pitcher Meghan Beaubien is working a no-hitter... Beaubien one strike away... Swing and a miss, no-hitter for Beaubien, the seventh of her career (per ESPN announcers)... Washington shuts out Portland State, 3-0, in the nightcap at this venue... UCLA regional Fresno State puts up the game's first two runs in the top of the sixth against Minnesota in the L.A. regional... Bulldogs close it out, 3-0... UCLA with an 8-0, run-rule...

2021 Annual Geospatial Maps of NCAA Regional Placements

For the first time since 2019 (due to the spring 2020 COVID-19 college-sports cancellations), the geospatial maps are back! As readers of this site will know, each year I plot the locations of teams that get sent to play in the 16 NCAA women's softball regionals . These maps show which regionals are geographically compact (i.e., all four teams being from the same state or two neighboring states) and which send teams all the way across the country to play. With COVID safety standards still in place to some extent, I thought the regionals might be more compact than usual to minimize travel. However, this does not appear to be the case.  Besides geography, this posting also discusses the substance of the national seedings and regional placements. The most controversial seeding is almost certainly the No. 16 slot given to the University of Washington, as the Huskies were a Top 5 team in the national polls and finished second in the tough Pac 12 conference. This Seattle Times column ...